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Susan Pockett's avatar

No Tim, you're wrong about what caused our downward slide. I have tried every which way to include in this comment a graph that I sourced some years ago from Stats NZ, showing NZ's balance of trade between 1951 and 2017. Unfortunately I haven't been able to do that -- and can no longer find this graph it on the Stats NZ website either (quel surprise). But since my original comment was basically a reply to the Halfling, I'll send it to his email address.

The graph I'm talking about shows that for the first 20-odd years of this period, NZ's balance of trade was remarkably stable at around zero. We didn't import more than we exported. We didn't export more than we imported. No obvious change to this situation occurred in 1966, when our version of NAFTA was signed with Australia. In 1973, a brief downward blip marks loss of the British market and the first global oil shock. However, by 1976 NZ's average balance of trade had returned to around zero (albeit with slightly more "noise" in the sense of fluctuations). During all of this period the value of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) was fixed and the economy was strictly controlled by the government.

In 1984 the NZD was first devalued, then floated. The figure in question shows that at this point, our balance of trade started to fluctuate wildly. For a while the average of the fluctuations was slightly positive – the value of exports (which had suddenly started delivering 20% more NZD per unit exported) was slightly greater than the value of imports (which had suddenly become 20% more expensive in NZD terms). However the newly floated NZD soon floated up again and by 1988 had reached a level even higher than before the devaluation.

Figure 1 shows that the annual average balance of trade (which can be seen by drawing a line through the middle of the annual fluctuations) then started to trend downwards. The decline stopped and tentatively reversed in about 1998, but a brief upswing towards zero was halted in 2001 when a free trade agreement with Singapore came into force. As soon as that happened, the average annual balance of trade began an even more noticeable slide downwards.

This downward trend continued till 2008, when a free trade agreement with China was signed. Since NZ had begun unilaterally removing barriers to IMPORT of goods from China in 1985, the reciprocal removal of China's import controls on our primary produce now resulted in an upward trend in our annual average balance of payments (which was particularly cheering seeing that this was the point at which the global banking crisis occurred). However, NZ then signed several more free trade agreements (with Malaysia, Hong Kong and ASEAN) and by 2012 our annual average balance of trade had begun another inexorable trend downwards. In 2017, Figure 1 shows that the annual average annual balance of trade was approximately $500 million NZD in the red (about what it was before the NZ-China FTA) and trending down (although it is possible to cherry-pick a couple of months each year in which the balance of trade briefly makes it into positive territory).

One interesting (and initially somewhat alarming) feature of NZ's balance of trade revealed by Figure 1 is its now quite extreme fluctuation. At first this is worrying in that it suggests an economy increasingly out of control. However the fact that these fluctuations are annual suggests they are probably due simply to an export trade increasingly dominated by seasonal factors. Tourism is a likely culprit, since tourist numbers are indeed seasonal (or were until covid-19 entered the picture, when they were stopped altogether by complete closure of NZ's borders). Export of perishable primary produce like fruit would also be maximal in summer, although export of other primary products should be less seasonal, given the ease of storing milk powder, frozen meat and logs. Hence, the extreme annual fluctuations in balance of trade shown by Figure 1 suggest that our export economy has (or had before 2017) become completely dominated by tourism and the export of fruit & veg.

At any rate, we now have a somewhat clearer picture of NZ's trading economy before and after the watershed year of 1984. What can be concluded from this picture? Two things stand out:

1. Before 1984 we had balanced books. Since 1984 we have fallen increasingly into debt. Actually the debt part can only be inferred from Figure 1: it is clear that since 1984 we have imported increasingly more than we export; the imbalance must have been funded by something; and the only possibilities are incurring debt or selling off assets. State asset sales were indeed a prominent ideological feature of Rogernomics, although these more or less stopped once everything was sold. It is true that the sale of privately owned land to foreigners has increased lately. However the fact that at least part of the increasing trade imbalance is funded by increasing government debt is directly shown by Figure 2, taken from Bill English's 2016 Budget.

Figure 2: New Zealand Government Net Debt (source: 2016 NZ Budget)

With regard to your comment, Tim, that people who produce things shouldn't be taxed more than 50%, one problem with that is that the richest people in our society tend not to actually PRODUCE anything. The Robber Barons who profited greatly from purchase of state owned enterprises in the 1980s mostly asset stripped those enterprises and sold them. Also, the Laffer curve certainly influenced Reaganomics, but it was not even a mathematical model, just a freehand drawing based on Laffer's intuition (or perhaps on his personal interest). It suffered a lot of criticism, was quickly labelled "trickle down economics" and (when it became abundantly clear that any benefits obtained by using it did NOT trickle down) more or less discredited. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laffercurve.asp.

Anyway, I'll stop now, and send the Figure I mentioned to the halfling. All the best. Sue

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Pamela Somerville's avatar

Interesting read. I will keep my thoughts and words short.

"Limitarianism" sounds very like a religious cult belief. Oh, for a world of moral and ethical wealth equality! Sounds like Utopia. Sounds like Control!

Even Christians know curbing ambition and hindering prosperity will not help the poor. "Blessed to be a blessing"is the philosophy.

Anyone (except perhaps Tova) can see David Seymour is not a "Libertarian" and indeed describes himself as a "classical liberal".

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