It's Simple, Simon

Simon Wilson Speculates on the Rise of Demagoguery in New Zealand

I suppose it was inevitable that Simon Wilson , the NZ Herald’s resident progressive, would write (again) on the Trump victory in the USA. His piece in the Herald for Tuesday 12 November is entitled “Could Donald Trump happen here?”

The answer is no. For a start Trump was elected President of the US. He is therefore the Head of State. We don’t (yet) elect our Head of State. Secondly, the New Zealand system is significantly different from that of the US in terms of political and institutional structures. The USA has a Constitution. We don’t (despite the mythology put about that the Treaty is a constitutional document – it isn’t) rather we have a set of political conventions and understandings as well as entrenched legislation like the Electoral Act.

But the point that Wilson makes, despite what is a misleading headline, is whether or not it may be likely that a demagogue like Trump could come to power. The answer is yes and we know this because it has happened before. Richard John Seddon was a demagogue as was Robert David Muldoon. Both exercised not inconsiderable power although they were constrained by law. Muldoon tried to overturn an Act of Parliament by executive decree and ran up against  the 1689 Bill of Rights Act in the case of Fitzgerald v Muldoon.

I am not going to go through Wilson’s article line by line as I have in the past. But it would be fair to say that he does make a few valid points. Where he falls down is in the conclusions that he draws.

The main points that he makes are as follows

1.   Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election with strong support across various demographics, particularly young men. ​

2. Trump's campaign slogan "Trump will fix it" mirrors Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown's "Fix Auckland" slogan. ​

3. He explores whether a Trump-like character could succeed in New Zealand, noting that disillusionment with mainstream politicians is a global phenomenon. ​

4. He highlights the cultural and political differences between the US and New Zealand, such as the focus on Treaty issues in NZ versus Black Lives Matter in the US. ​

5. The piece argues that both major political parties in New Zealand have failed to address key issues, leading to public disillusionment. ​

6. It suggests that this disillusionment could pave the way for outsider or demagogue figures to gain traction in New Zealand politics. ​

7. The article concludes that while progressive causes aim to address systemic injustices, they have struggled to resonate with certain voter demographics, similar to the challenges faced by the Democrats in the US.

Wilson also identifies a number of key factors in Trump’s victory

1. Broad Demographic Appeal: Trump made inroads across various demographics, including strong support from young men. ​

2. Campaign Slogan: His late campaign slogan, "Trump will fix it," resonated with voters looking for decisive action and solutions. ​

3. Cultural Connection: He connected with voters who valued hard work, community, and traditional values, and who felt alienated by progressive changes. ​

4. Disillusionment with Establishment: Many voters were disillusioned with mainstream politicians and saw Trump as an outsider who could bring change. ​

5. Economic Concerns: His messages on economic opportunities and personal freedoms struck a chord with those feeling left behind by the current system. ​

6. Support from Influential Figures: High-profile endorsements and significant financial backing, such as from Elon Musk, helped bolster his campaign. ​

7. These factors combined to create a strong base of support that ultimately led to his victory. ​

The demographics were quite startling. Trump’s appeal was not limited to a single group; he managed to attract voters from different backgrounds, including those who felt disconnected from the political establishment and valued traditional cultural norms.  In particular he gained support from young men by appealing to their sense of identity and addressing issues that resonated with them.

His campaign effectively communicated messages that aligned with their values and concerns, such as economic opportunities, personal freedoms, and a rejection of political correctness.

Additionally, his strong and assertive persona may have appealed to young men looking for a leader who appeared decisive and unafraid to challenge the status quo.

So Wilson has identified many of the issues that concerned US voters. He tried to minimize the support that Trump gained by virtually suggesting that the gap between Trump and Harris was only a few percentage points (it was Mark Twain who said their were lies, damned lies and statistics) whereas in fact the difference was in the millions of votes that were cast.

But Wilson was correct in highlighting the disillusionment with mainstream politicians and the appeal of Trump's outsider status along with the cynicism and resentment that have grown in society, which Trump capitalized on. 

Wilson also critiqued the simplistic and misleading nature of Trump's campaign messages, suggesting that they dress up complex issues in a way that appeals to voters' frustrations and fears. But what Trump did was that he spoke to voters in their own language, identifying their frustrations and fears and reflecting that previous administrations had done little to solve the growing discontent and dissatisfaction that had grown up.

Overall, Wilson seems concerned about the implications of Trump's victory and the broader trend of demagogues gaining power by exploiting societal discontent.

But the problem is not Trump and it is not the rise of a Kiwi demagogue. The problem is more in the how this all came to pass and why an electorate would support such a flawed candidate.

The how is that the American Dream is not delivering and there is a strong belief that it can again. Make America Great Again resonates with a middle class that has become disillusioned with a Government that does not seem to listen or be aware – nor care – about them. It would seem that the Government has forgotten about “We the People”.

The why is that that the candidate on offer by the Democrats had no vision, no slogan, no policies and essentially was going to continue with “more of the same” but perhaps with a lurch to the left – where pronouns became more important than fundamental issues, than jobs on the table, where DEI hires meant that the most capable candidate for a job missed out because they didn’t fit with the affirmative action categories – where girls were disadvantaged in sports because boys who wanted to pretend they were girls were taking the trophies.

Simon fears the rise of a demagogue who may tap into these issues. But perhaps he would do better to look at the issues themselves rather than fret about who might mobilise them.

Simon’s argument for the Progressives goes as follows:

“Progressives don’t want to change the culture just so they can annoy people or preach to them.

[Progressives] want change because, despite that culture’s many virtues, it serves men better than women and whites better than people of colour. Because it upholds many other injustices and in America props up the worst gun violence in the developed world.

Progressives don’t believe that immigrants, transgender people and the media elite have caused the hardships most people now face.

They point, instead, to an economic system that closes factories and abandons whole towns. To the floods, droughts and wildfires of climate change. To the corrosive elements of social media.”

But perhaps people ARE annoyed by the culture wars. Perhaps illegal immigrants in the US ARE a threat because they take the jobs and accept lower wages than home grown Americans. And perhaps people would like to live in a society that values individualism, hard work, a sense of community based on shared rather than enforced values. It isn’t JUST about minorities. It is about they way that the Progressive Left has mobilised to place such issues above the provision of food, the availability of work, a decent a-political education system, a decent and responsive health system and protection from enemies foreign and domestic.

The Left would like to erode the values of the Western Enlightenment and these issues don’t need a demagogue to identify them. They have been staring at us in the face for years. It may come as a surprise when the next election comes around that the two Center parties (Labour Left of Centre and National/Labour Lite) bleed support to the likes of NZ First and ACT.